2 papers
stat.ME2025
A decision-theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification in epidemiological modelling
Nicholas Steyn, Freddie Bickford Smith, Cathal Mills +3
Estimating, understanding, and communicating uncertainty is fundamental to statistical epidemiology, where model-based estimates regularly inform real-world decisions. However, sou…
stat.ME2025
A primer on inference and prediction with epidemic renewal models and sequential Monte Carlo
Nicholas Steyn, Kris V. Parag, Robin N. Thompson +1
Renewal models are widely used in statistical epidemiology as semi-mechanistic models of disease transmission. While primarily used for estimating the instantaneous reproduction nu…