3 papers
stat.ME2025
Quantile Forecast Matching with a Bayesian Quantile Gaussian Process Model
Spencer Wadsworth, Jarad Niemi
A set of probabilities along with corresponding quantiles are often used to define predictive distributions or probabilistic forecasts. These quantile predictions offer easily inte…
stat.ME2025
Bayesian Stacking via Proper Scoring Rule Optimization using a Gibbs Posterior
Spencer Wadsworth, Jarad Niemi
In collaborative forecast projects, the combining of multiple probabilistic forecasts into an ensemble is standard practice, with linear pooling being a common combination method.…
stat.AP2025
Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy
Spencer Wadsworth, Jarad Niemi
The annual influenza outbreak leads to significant public health and economic burdens making it desirable to have prompt and accurate probabilistic forecasts of the disease spread.…