5 papers
Forecast reconciliation with non-linear constraints
Daniele Girolimetto, Anastasios Panagiotelis, Tommaso Di Fonzo +1
Methods for forecasting time series adhering to linear constraints have seen notable development in recent years, especially with the advent of forecast reconciliation. This paper…
Forecasting Italian daily electricity generation disaggregated by geographical zones and energy sources using coherent forecast combination
Daniele Girolimetto, Tommaso Di Fonzo
A novel approach is applied for improving forecast accuracy and achieving coherence in forecasting the Italian daily energy generation time series. In hierarchical frameworks such…
Energy load forecasting using Terna public data: a free lunch multi-task combination approach
Daniele Girolimetto, Tommaso Di Fonzo
We propose a quick-and-simple procedure to augment the accuracy of 15-minutes Italian load forecasts disaggregated by bidding zones published by Terna, the operator of the Italian…
Balancing Accuracy and Costs in Cross-Temporal Hierarchies: Investigating Decision-Based and Validation-Based Reconciliation
Mahdi Abolghasemi, Daniele Girolimetto, Tommaso Di Fonzo
Wind power forecasting is essential for managing daily operations at wind farms and enabling market operators to manage power uncertainty effectively in demand planning. This paper…
Coherent forecast combination for linearly constrained multiple time series
Daniele Girolimetto, Tommaso Di Fonzo
Linearly constrained multiple time series may be encountered in many practical contexts, such as the National Accounts (e.g., GDP disaggregated by Income, Expenditure and Output),…