244 citations · 2k across the 53 of their papers we have counts for
18 papers · 1 filter
Networked Spatial Effects in European Electricity Price Forecasting
Sultan Mahmud Chomon, Florian Ziel
As European bidding zones are highly interconnected by physical transmission lines, spatial influences propagate across neighboring nodes through a network. It is reflected in the…
The role of probabilistic load and renewable prediction in enhancing day-ahead electricity price forecasts
Bartosz Uniejewski, Florian Ziel
The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources (RES) has amplified volatility in electricity markets, while demand variability continues to challenge system stability. Trad…
A data-driven merit order: Learning a fundamental electricity price model
Paul Ghelasi, Florian Ziel
Electricity price forecasting approaches generally fall into two categories: data-driven models, which learn from historical patterns, or fundamental models, which simulate market…
Spatial Weather, Socio-Economic and Political Risks in Probabilistic Load Forecasting
Monika Zimmermann, Florian Ziel
Accurate forecasts of the impact of spatial weather and pan-European socio-economic and political risks on hourly electricity demand for the mid-term horizon are crucial for strate…
From day-ahead to mid and long-term horizons with econometric electricity price forecasting models
Paul Ghelasi, Florian Ziel
The recent energy crisis starting in 2021 led to record-high gas, coal, carbon and power prices, with electricity reaching up to 40 times the pre-crisis average. This had dramatic…
Efficient mid-term forecasting of hourly electricity load using generalized additive models
Monika Zimmermann, Florian Ziel
Accurate mid-term (weeks to one year) hourly electricity load forecasts are essential for strategic decision-making in power plant operation, ensuring supply security and grid stab…
Hierarchical forecasting for aggregated curves with an application to day-ahead electricity price auctions
Paul Ghelasi, Florian Ziel
Aggregated curves are common structures in economics and finance, and the most prominent examples are supply and demand curves. In this study, we exploit the fact that all aggregat…
Forecasting: theory and practice
Fotios Petropoulos, Daniele Apiletti, Vassilios Assimakopoulos +77
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organ…
On cointegration for modeling and forecasting wind power production
Florian Ziel, Antonia Arsova
This study evaluates the performance of cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) models for very short- and short-term wind power forecasting. Preliminary results for a German data…
Distributional Modeling and Forecasting of Natural Gas Prices
Jonathan Berrisch, Florian Ziel
We examine the problem of modeling and forecasting European Day-Ahead and Month-Ahead natural gas prices. For this, we propose two distinct probabilistic models that can be utilize…
Probabilistic Multi-Step-Ahead Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting with Lasso
Jens Kley-Holsteg, Florian Ziel
Water demand is a highly important variable for operational control and decision making. Hence, the development of accurate forecasts is a valuable field of research to further imp…
Quantile Regression for Qualifying Match of GEFCom2017 Probabilistic Load Forecasting
Florian Ziel
We present a simple quantile regression-based forecasting method that was applied in a probabilistic load forecasting framework of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2017 (G…
Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate modeling frameworks
Florian Ziel, Rafal Weron
We conduct an extensive empirical study on short-term electricity price forecasting (EPF) to address the long-standing question if the optimal model structure for EPF is univariate…
Short Term Load Forecasts of Low Voltage Demand and the Effects of Weather
Stephen Haben, Georgios Giasemidis, Florian Ziel +1
Short term load forecasts will play a key role in the implementation of smart electricity grids. They are required to optimise a wide range of potential network solutions on the lo…
Probabilistic Mid- and Long-Term Electricity Price Forecasting
Florian Ziel, Rick Steinert
The liberalization of electricity markets and the development of renewable energy sources has led to new challenges for decision makers. These challenges are accompanied by an incr…
Forecasting wind power - Modeling periodic and non-linear effects under conditional heteroscedasticity
Florian Ziel, Carsten Croonenbroeck, Daniel Ambach
In this article we present an approach that enables joint wind speed and wind power forecasts for a wind park. We combine a multivariate seasonal time varying threshold autoregress…
Lasso estimation for GEFCom2014 probabilistic electric load forecasting
Florian Ziel, Bidong Liu
We present a methodology for probabilistic load forecasting that is based on lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) estimation. The model considered can be regarde…
Efficient Modeling and Forecasting of the Electricity Spot Price
Florian Ziel, Rick Steinert, Sven Husmann
The increasing importance of renewable energy, especially solar and wind power, has led to new forces in the formation of electricity prices. Hence, this paper introduces an econom…