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math.ST2026
Conformal Prediction Through the Lens of Hypothesis Testing: Universality, Impossibility, and Optimality
Ryan J. Tibshirani, Rina Foygel Barber, Aaditya Ramdas
The connections between conformal prediction and permutation tests are already widely-known in the literature. Some authors motivate conformal prediction by saying that it computes…
stat.ME2026
Monte Carlo testing: non-asymptotic guarantees without joint exchangeability
Rina Foygel Barber, Aaditya Ramdas
In hypothesis testing, Monte Carlo tests are usually justified either by exact null simulation or by joint exchangeability of the observed data and its simulated copies. This leave…