138 citations · 424 across the 12 of their papers we have counts for
10 papers · 1 filter
Calculation of Epidemic First Passage and Peak Time Probability Distributions
Jacob Curran-Sebastian, Lorenzo Pellis, Ian Hall +1
Understanding the timing of the peak of a disease outbreak forms an important part of epidemic forecasting. In many cases, such information is essential for planning increased hosp…
Novel methods for estimating the instantaneous and overall COVID-19 case fatality risk among care home residents in England
Christopher E. Overton, Luke Webb, Uma Datta +10
The COVID-19 pandemic has had high mortality rates in the elderly and frail worldwide, particularly in care homes. This is driven by the difficulty of isolating care homes from the…
A computational framework for modelling infectious disease policy based on age and household structure with applications to the COVID-19 pandemic
Joe Hilton, Heather Riley, Lorenzo Pellis +9
The widespread, and in many countries unprecedented, use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for mathematical models wh…
EpiBeds: Data informed modelling of the COVID-19 hospital burden in England
Christopher E. Overton, Lorenzo Pellis, Helena B. Stage +9
The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic put considerable strain on the national healthcare system in England. In order to predict the effect of the local epidemic on hospital capac…
Total Effect Analysis of Vaccination on Household Transmission in the Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey
Thomas House, Lorenzo Pellis, Emma Pritchard +2
We investigate the distribution of numbers of secondary cases in households in the Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey (ONS CIS), stratified by timing of vacci…
Shut and re-open: the role of schools in the spread of COVID-19 in Europe
Helena B. Stage, Joseph Shingleton, Sanmitra Ghosh +3
We investigate the effect of school closure and subsequent reopening on the transmission of COVID-19, by considering Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and German states as case studies. By…