4 papers · 1 filter
Recession Detection Using Classifiers on the Anticipation-Precision Frontier
Pascal Michaillat
This paper develops an algorithm for detecting US recessions in real time. The algorithm constructs hundreds of millions of recession classifiers by combining unemployment and vaca…
Modeling Migration-Induced Unemployment
Pascal Michaillat
Immigration is often blamed for increasing unemployment among local workers. This sentiment is reflected in the rise of anti-immigration parties and policies in Western democracies…
Has the Recession Started?
Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez
To answer this question, we develop a new Sahm-type recession indicator that combines vacancy and unemployment data. The indicator is the minimum of the Sahm indicator -- the diffe…
Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez
This paper aims to compute the unemployment rate that is consistent with full employment in the United States. First, it argues that the most appropriate economic translation…