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20132025
most citedCan You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift

924 citations · 5.3k across the 63 of their papers we have counts for

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29 papers · 1 filter

cs.LG2023

What Are Effective Labels for Augmented Data? Improving Calibration and Robustness with AutoLabel

Yao Qin, Xuezhi Wang, Balaji Lakshminarayanan +2

A wide breadth of research has devised data augmentation approaches that can improve both accuracy and generalization performance for neural networks. However, augmented data can e…

cs.LG2023

Pushing the Accuracy-Group Robustness Frontier with Introspective Self-play

Jeremiah Zhe Liu, Krishnamurthy Dj Dvijotham, Jihyeon Lee +4

Standard empirical risk minimization (ERM) training can produce deep neural network (DNN) models that are accurate on average but under-perform in under-represented population subg…

cs.LG2023★ 9 cited

A Simple Zero-shot Prompt Weighting Technique to Improve Prompt Ensembling in Text-Image Models

James Urquhart Allingham, Jie Ren, Michael W Dusenberry +5

Contrastively trained text-image models have the remarkable ability to perform zero-shot classification, that is, classifying previously unseen images into categories that the mode…

cs.LG2022★ 38 cited

Plex: Towards Reliability using Pretrained Large Model Extensions

Dustin Tran, Jeremiah Liu, Michael W. Dusenberry +23

A recent trend in artificial intelligence is the use of pretrained models for language and vision tasks, which have achieved extraordinary performance but also puzzling failures. P…

cs.LG2022★ 36 cited

A Simple Approach to Improve Single-Model Deep Uncertainty via Distance-Awareness

Jeremiah Zhe Liu, Shreyas Padhy, Jie Ren +7

Accurate uncertainty quantification is a major challenge in deep learning, as neural networks can make overconfident errors and assign high confidence predictions to out-of-distrib…

cs.LG2021★ 15 cited

Reliable Graph Neural Networks for Drug Discovery Under Distributional Shift

Kehang Han, Balaji Lakshminarayanan, Jeremiah Liu

The concern of overconfident mis-predictions under distributional shift demands extensive reliability research on Graph Neural Networks used in critical tasks in drug discovery. He…

cs.LG2021★ 13 cited

Understanding and Improving Robustness of Vision Transformers through Patch-based Negative Augmentation

Yao Qin, Chiyuan Zhang, Ting Chen +3

We investigate the robustness of vision transformers (ViTs) through the lens of their special patch-based architectural structure, i.e., they process an image as a sequence of imag…

cs.LG2021★ 1 cited

Sparse MoEs meet Efficient Ensembles

James Urquhart Allingham, Florian Wenzel, Zelda E Mariet +10

Machine learning models based on the aggregated outputs of submodels, either at the activation or prediction levels, often exhibit strong performance compared to individual models.…

cs.LG2021★ 8 cited

Soft Calibration Objectives for Neural Networks

Archit Karandikar, Nicholas Cain, Dustin Tran +4

Optimal decision making requires that classifiers produce uncertainty estimates consistent with their empirical accuracy. However, deep neural networks are often under- or over-con…

cs.LG2021★ 107 cited

Exploring the Limits of Out-of-Distribution Detection

Stanislav Fort, Jie Ren, Balaji Lakshminarayanan

Near out-of-distribution detection (OOD) is a major challenge for deep neural networks. We demonstrate that large-scale pre-trained transformers can significantly improve the state…

cs.LG2021★ 2 cited

BEDS-Bench: Behavior of EHR-models under Distributional Shift--A Benchmark

Anand Avati, Martin Seneviratne, Emily Xue +3

Machine learning has recently demonstrated impressive progress in predictive accuracy across a wide array of tasks. Most ML approaches focus on generalization performance on unseen…

cs.LG2021★ 1 cited

An Instance-Dependent Simulation Framework for Learning with Label Noise

Keren Gu, Xander Masotto, Vandana Bachani +3

We propose a simulation framework for generating instance-dependent noisy labels via a pseudo-labeling paradigm. We show that the distribution of the synthetic noisy labels generat…

cs.LG2021★ 3 cited

Task-agnostic Continual Learning with Hybrid Probabilistic Models

Polina Kirichenko, Mehrdad Farajtabar, Dushyant Rao +6

Learning new tasks continuously without forgetting on a constantly changing data distribution is essential for real-world problems but extremely challenging for modern deep learnin…

cs.LG2021★ 71 cited

A Simple Fix to Mahalanobis Distance for Improving Near-OOD Detection

Jie Ren, Stanislav Fort, Jeremiah Liu +3

Mahalanobis distance (MD) is a simple and popular post-processing method for detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs in neural networks. We analyze its failure modes for near-OO…

cs.LG2021★ 1 cited

Test Sample Accuracy Scales with Training Sample Density in Neural Networks

Xu Ji, Razvan Pascanu, Devon Hjelm +2

Intuitively, one would expect accuracy of a trained neural network's prediction on test samples to correlate with how densely the samples are surrounded by seen training samples in…

cs.LG2021★ 5 cited

Uncertainty Baselines: Benchmarks for Uncertainty & Robustness in Deep Learning

Zachary Nado, Neil Band, Mark Collier +23

High-quality estimates of uncertainty and robustness are crucial for numerous real-world applications, especially for deep learning which underlies many deployed ML systems. The ab…

cs.LG2020★ 9 cited

Combining Ensembles and Data Augmentation can Harm your Calibration

Yeming Wen, Ghassen Jerfel, Rafael Muller +4

Ensemble methods which average over multiple neural network predictions are a simple approach to improve a model's calibration and robustness. Similarly, data augmentation techniqu…

cs.LG2020★ 30 cited

Training independent subnetworks for robust prediction

Marton Havasi, Rodolphe Jenatton, Stanislav Fort +5

Recent approaches to efficiently ensemble neural networks have shown that strong robustness and uncertainty performance can be achieved with a negligible gain in parameters over th…

cs.LG2020★ 9 cited

Revisiting One-vs-All Classifiers for Predictive Uncertainty and Out-of-Distribution Detection in Neural Networks

Shreyas Padhy, Zachary Nado, Jie Ren +3

Accurate estimation of predictive uncertainty in modern neural networks is critical to achieve well calibrated predictions and detect out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. The most pro…

cs.LG2020★ 14 cited

Density of States Estimation for Out-of-Distribution Detection

Warren R. Morningstar, Cusuh Ham, Andrew G. Gallagher +3

Perhaps surprisingly, recent studies have shown probabilistic model likelihoods have poor specificity for out-of-distribution (OOD) detection and often assign higher likelihoods to…

cs.LG2020★ 94 cited

Evaluating Prediction-Time Batch Normalization for Robustness under Covariate Shift

Zachary Nado, Shreyas Padhy, D. Sculley +3

Covariate shift has been shown to sharply degrade both predictive accuracy and the calibration of uncertainty estimates for deep learning models. This is worrying, because covariat…

cs.LG2020★ 103 cited

Simple and Principled Uncertainty Estimation with Deterministic Deep Learning via Distance Awareness

Jeremiah Zhe Liu, Zi Lin, Shreyas Padhy +3

Bayesian neural networks (BNN) and deep ensembles are principled approaches to estimate the predictive uncertainty of a deep learning model. However their practicality in real-time…

cs.LG2020★ 33 cited

Efficient and Scalable Bayesian Neural Nets with Rank-1 Factors

Michael W. Dusenberry, Ghassen Jerfel, Yeming Wen +5

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) demonstrate promising success in improving the robustness and uncertainty quantification of modern deep learning. However, they generally struggle w…

cs.LG2019★ 34 cited

Hybrid Models with Deep and Invertible Features

Eric Nalisnick, Akihiro Matsukawa, Yee Whye Teh +2

We propose a neural hybrid model consisting of a linear model defined on a set of features computed by a deep, invertible transformation (i.e. a normalizing flow). An attractive pr…