3 papers
econ.GN2015
The Poker-Litigation Game
Enrique Guerra-Pujol
Is litigation a serious search for truth or simply a game of skill or luck? Although the process of litigation has been modeled as a Prisoner's Dilemma, as a War of Attrition, as a…
stat.OT2015
Visualizing Probabilistic Proof
Enrique Guerra-Pujol
The author revisits the Blue Bus Problem, a famous thought-experiment in law involving probabilistic proof, and presents simple Bayesian solutions to different versions of the blue…
econ.GN2015
A Bayesian Model of the Litigation Game
Enrique Guerra-Pujol
Over a century ago, Oliver Wendell Holmes invited scholars to look at the law through the lens of probability theory: "The prophecies of what the courts will do in fact, and nothin…