From the 1 of 10 linked papers with an AI index.
10 papers
Constraining the lives and times of exoplanets through evolutionary Bayesian retrievals
Harrison Nicholls, Tim Lichtenberg, Ben Riegler +2
The paper introduces a Bayesian retrieval framework that models the time‑evolution of exoplanet interiors and atmospheres, allowing constraints on their formation histories and vol…
Decision-Aligned Evaluation of Uncertainty Quantification
Annika Schneider, Tommy Rochussen, Joshua Stiller +1
Uncertainty estimates in machine learning are typically evaluated using generic metrics such as the negative log-likelihood and expected calibration error, yet good performance on…
Gaussian Mean Field Variational Inference can Overestimate Predictive Variance
James Odgers, Ben Riegler, Siddharth Swaroop +1
Mean Field Variational Inference (MFVI) is widely understood to underestimate posterior variance. By analysing conjugate Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR), we show that this charact…
Position: agentic AI orchestration should be Bayes-consistent
Theodore Papamarkou, Pierre Alquier, Matthias Bauer +27
LLMs excel at predictive tasks and complex reasoning tasks, but many high-value deployments rely on decisions under uncertainty, for example, which tool to call, which expert to co…
Standard Acquisition Is Sufficient for Asynchronous Bayesian Optimization
Ben Riegler, James Odgers, Vincent Fortuin
Asynchronous Bayesian optimization is widely used for gradient-free optimization in domains with independent parallel experiments and varying evaluation times. Existing methods pos…
In-Context Function Learning in Large Language Models
Elif Akata, Konstantinos Voudouris, Vincent Fortuin +1
Large language models (LLMs) can learn from a few demonstrations provided at inference time. We study this in-context learning phenomenon through the lens of Gaussian Processes (GP…