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bitcoin 1halving clock 1indicator decay 1power-law dynamics 1price cycles 1statistical null models 1

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1 paper

q-fin.ST2026

Bitcoin Runs on a Clock: Why Every Price Indicator Dies and the Halving Clock Doesn't

Josh Molnar

The paper examines why commonly used Bitcoin price cycle indicators lose their predictive power over successive halving periods, showing that only a time‑since‑genesis power‑law si…