Dynamic Attention (DynAttn): Interpretable High-Dimensional Spatio-Temporal Forecasting (with Application to Conflict Fatalities)

Stefano M. Iacus, Haodong Qi, Marcello Carammia +1

Forecasting conflict-related fatalities remains a central challenge in political science and policy analysis due to the sparse, bursty, and highly non-stationary nature of violence…