3 papers
physics.ao-ph2025
Rainfall forecasts in daily use over East Africa improved by machine learning
Fenwick C. Cooper, Shruti Nath, Andrew T. T. McRae +20
Ensemble forecasting has proven over the years to be a vital tool for predicting extreme or only partially predictable weather events. In particular life-threatening weather events…
physics.ao-ph2025
Seasonal forecasting using the GenCast probabilistic machine learning model
Bobby Antonio, Kristian Strommen, Hannah M. Christensen
Machine-learnt weather prediction (MLWP) models are now well established as being competitive with conventional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in the medium range. Howev…
physics.ao-ph2025
How to derive skill from the Fractions Skill Score
Bobby Antonio, Laurence Aitchison
The Fractions Skill Score (FSS) is a widely used metric for assessing forecast skill, with applications ranging from precipitation to volcanic ash forecasts. By evaluating the frac…