5 papers
Design-Robust Event-Study Estimation under Staggered Adoption Diagnostics, Sensitivity, and Orthogonalisation
Craig S Wright
This paper develops a design-first econometric framework for event-study and difference-in-differences estimands under staggered adoption with heterogeneous effects, emphasising (i…
Utility-Weighted Forecasting and Calibration for Risk-Adjusted Decisions under Trading Frictions
Craig S Wright
Forecasting accuracy is routinely optimised in financial prediction tasks even though investment and risk-management decisions are executed under transaction costs, market impact,…
Mathematical Modelling of Oscillatory Dynamics in Circular Traffic Systems
Craig S Wright
This paper presents a rigorous analytical model of traffic dynamics on a circular track, demonstrating the emergence of standing oscillations resulting from microscopic driver beha…
Immutability Does Not Guarantee Trust: A Formal and Logical Refutation
Craig S Wright
It is frequently claimed in blockchain discourse that immutability guarantees trust. This paper rigorously refutes that assertion. We define immutability as the cryptographic persi…
Resolving CAP Through Automata-Theoretic Economic Design: A Unified Mathematical Framework for Real-Time Partition-Tolerant Systems
Craig S Wright
The CAP theorem asserts a trilemma between consistency, availability, and partition tolerance. This paper introduces a rigorous automata-theoretic and economically grounded framewo…