2 papers
cs.CR2026
Guardians of the Regime: Secret Police Formation in Autocracies
Marius Mehrl, Mila Pfander, Theresa Winner +1
Autocrats use secret police to stay in power, as these organizations deter and suppress opposition to their rule. Existing research shows that secret police succeed at this but, su…
stat.AP2024
The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty
HÃ¥vard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi +37
This draft article outlines a prediction challenge where the target is to forecast the number of fatalities in armed conflicts, in the form of the UCDP `best' estimates, aggregated…