15 citations · 17 across the 3 of their papers we have counts for
3 papers
Hybrid Forecasting of Geopolitical Events
Daniel M. Benjamin, Fred Morstatter, Ali E. Abbas +26
Sound decision-making relies on accurate prediction for tangible outcomes ranging from military conflict to disease outbreaks. To improve crowdsourced forecasting accuracy, we deve…
Creating Custom Event Data Without Dictionaries: A Bag-of-Tricks
Andrew Halterman, Philip A. Schrodt, Andreas Beger +2
Event data, or structured records of ``who did what to whom'' that are automatically extracted from text, is an important source of data for scholars of international politics. The…
Irregular Leadership Changes in 2014: Forecasts using ensemble, split-population duration models
Andreas Beger, Cassy L. Dorff, Michael D. Ward
We forecast Irregular Leadership Changes (ILC)--unexpected leadership changes in contravention of a state's established laws and conventions--for mid-2014 using predictions generat…