3 papers
cs.LG2026
Decision-oriented benchmarking to transform AI weather forecast access: Application to the Indian monsoon
Rajat Masiwal, Colin Aitken, Adam Marchakitus +9
Artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) models now often outperform traditional physics-based models on common metrics while requiring orders-of-magnitude less computing…
physics.ao-ph2026
Predicting Beyond Training Data via Extrapolation versus Translocation: AI Weather Models and Dubai's Unprecedented 2024 Rainfall
Y. Qiang Sun, Pedram Hassanzadeh, Tiffany Shaw +1
Artificial intelligence (AI) models have transformed weather forecasting, but their skill for gray swan extremes is unclear. Here, we analyze GraphCast, AIFS, and FuXi forecasts of…
physics.ao-ph2025
Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan tropical cyclones?
Y. Qiang Sun, Pedram Hassanzadeh, Mohsen Zand +3
Predicting gray swan weather extremes, which are possible but so rare that they are absent from the training dataset, is a major concern for AI weather models and long-term climate…