3 papers
stat.CO2026
A computationally efficient framework for realistic epidemic modelling through Gaussian Markov random fields
Angelos Alexopoulos, Paul Birrell, Daniela De Angelis
We tackle limitations of ordinary differential equation-driven Susceptible-Infections-Removed (SIR) models and their extensions that have recently be employed for epidemic nowcasti…
stat.ME2025
Estimating the duration of RT-PCR positivity for SARS-CoV-2 from doubly interval censored data with undetected infections
Joshua Blake, Paul Birrell, A. Sarah Walker +5
Monitoring the incidence of new infections during a pandemic is critical for an effective public health response. General population prevalence surveys for SARS-CoV-2 can provide h…
stat.CO2024
The Lifebelt Particle Filter for robust estimation from low-valued count data
Alice Corbella, Trevelyan J. McKinley, Paul J. Birrell +4
Particle filtering methods can be applied to estimation problems in discrete spaces on bounded domains, to sample from and marginalise over unknown hidden states. As in continuous…