Post-2024 U.S. Presidential Election Analysis of Election and Poll Data: Real-life Validation of Prediction via Small Area Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification

Zheshi Zheng, Yuanyuan Li, Peter X. K. Song +1

We carry out a post-election analysis of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election (USPE) using a prediction model derived from the Small Area Estimation (SAE) methodology. With pollster…