3 papers
q-bio.QM2026
Multi-scale measures of time-varying epidemic spread on human mobility networks
Cathal Mills, Benjamin Reddy, William S. Hart +5
The paper introduces a network-based framework that incorporates within‑day human mobility into renewal equations to define multiple instantaneous reproduction numbers for location…
stat.ME2026
A note on conditional densities, Bayes' rule, and recent criticisms of Bayesian inference
Alex Yan, Cathal Mills, Augustin Marignier +2
When performing Bayesian inference, we frequently need to work with conditional probability densities. For example, the posterior function is the conditional density of the paramet…
q-bio.PE2026
Misspecification of the generation time distribution and its impact on Rt estimates in structured populations
Ioana Bouros, Robin Thompson, David Gavaghan +1
Due to its ability to summarise 'real-time' epidemic behaviour, the time-dependent reproduction number, Rt, is a useful metric for tracking pathogen transmission and quantifying th…