3 papers
q-bio.QM2026
Multi-scale measures of time-varying epidemic spread on human mobility networks
Cathal Mills, Benjamin Reddy, William S. Hart +5
The paper introduces a network-based framework that incorporates within‑day human mobility into renewal equations to define multiple instantaneous reproduction numbers for location…
stat.ME2026
A note on conditional densities, Bayes' rule, and recent criticisms of Bayesian inference
Alex Yan, Cathal Mills, Augustin Marignier +2
When performing Bayesian inference, we frequently need to work with conditional probability densities. For example, the posterior function is the conditional density of the paramet…
stat.ME2025
A decision-theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification in epidemiological modelling
Nicholas Steyn, Freddie Bickford Smith, Cathal Mills +3
Estimating, understanding, and communicating uncertainty is fundamental to statistical epidemiology, where model-based estimates regularly inform real-world decisions. However, sou…