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Characterising two-pathogen competition in spatially structured environments
Chiara Poletto, Sandro Meloni, Ashleigh Van Metre +3
Different pathogens spreading in the same host population often generate complex co-circulation dynamics because of the many possible interactions between the pathogens and the hos…
Host mobility drives pathogen competition in spatially structured populations
Chiara Poletto, Sandro Meloni, Vittoria Colizza +2
Interactions among multiple infectious agents are increasingly recognized as a fundamental issue in the understanding of key questions in public health, regarding pathogen emergenc…
Towards a characterization of behavior-disease models
Nicola Perra, Duygu Balcan, Bruno Gonçalves +1
The last decade saw the advent of increasingly realistic epidemic models that leverage on the availability of highly detailed census and human mobility data. Data-driven models aim…
Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall/Winter 2009 activity of the new A(H1N1) influenza in the Northern Hemisphere
Paolo Bajardi, Chiara Poletto, Duygu Balcan +9
The unfolding of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) for Fall 2009 in the Northern Hemisphere is still uncertain. Plans for vaccination campaigns and vaccine trials are underway, with the f…
Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility
Duygu Balcan, Hao Hu, Bruno Goncalves +9
On 11 June the World Health Organization officially raised the phase of pandemic alert (with regard to the new H1N1 influenza strain) to level 6. We use a global structured metapop…
Epidemic modeling in metapopulation systems with heterogeneous coupling pattern: theory and simulations
Vittoria Colizza, Alessandro Vespignani
The spatial structure of populations is a key element in the understanding of the large scale spreading of epidemics. Motivated by the recent empirical evidence on the heterogeneou…