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20242026
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econ.EM2026

Nonfundamentalness or missing information ? Evidence from causal-noncausal VARs in macro-finance

Lison Christiaens, Julien Hambuckers, Alain Hecq

The paper examines whether noncausal dynamics in macro‑finance VAR models stem from true nonfundamental behavior or from omitted common information, introducing a factor‑filtered m…

econ.EM2026

Bubble Detection with Application to Green Bubbles: A Noncausal Approach

Francesco Giancaterini, Alain Hecq, Joann Jasiak +1

This paper introduces a new approach for bubble detection based on mixed causal and noncausal autoregressive processes and their tail process representation during an explosive epi…

econ.EM2026

Seasonality in Mixed Causal-Noncausal Processes

Tomás del Barrio Castro, Alain Hecq, Sean Telg

This paper investigates the role of complex and negative roots in mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive (MAR) models. Using partial fraction decompositions, we show that seasonal r…

econ.EM2025

Regularized Generalized Covariance (RGCov) Estimator

Francesco Giancaterini, Alain Hecq, Joann Jasiak +1

We introduce a regularized Generalized Covariance (RGCov) estimator as an extension of the GCov estimator to high dimensional setting that results either from high-dimensional data…

econ.EM2024

Hierarchical Regularizers for Reverse Unrestricted Mixed Data Sampling Regressions

Alain Hecq, Marie Ternes, Ines Wilms

Reverse Unrestricted MIxed DAta Sampling (RU-MIDAS) regressions are used to model high-frequency responses by means of low-frequency variables. However, due to the periodic structu…