10 papers
The risk for a new COVID-19 wave -- and how it depends on , the current immunity level and current restrictions
Tom Britton, Pieter Trapman, Frank Ball
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit different parts of the world differently: some regions are still in the rise of the first wave, other regions are now facing a decline after a first w…
Epidemics on networks with preventive rewiring
Frank Ball, Tom Britton
A stochastic SIR (susceptible infective recovered) epidemic model defined on a social network is analysed. The underlying social network is described by an Erdős-Rényi…
Summer vacation and COVID-19: effects of metropolitan people going to summer provinces
Tom Britton, Frank Ball
Many countries are now investigating what the effects of summer vacation might be on the COVID-19 pandemic. Here one particular such question is addressed: what will happen if larg…
The disease-induced herd immunity level for Covid-19 is substantially lower than the classical herd immunity level
Tom Britton, Frank Ball, Pieter Trapman
Most countries are suffering severely from the ongoing covid-19 pandemic despite various levels of preventive measures. A common question is if and when a country or region will re…
Central limit theorems for SIR epidemics and percolation on configuration model random graphs
Frank Ball
We consider a stochastic SIR (susceptible infective recovered) epidemic defined on a configuration model random graph, in which infective individuals can infect only th…
A stochastic SIR network epidemic model with preventive dropping of edges
Frank Ball, Tom Britton, Ka Yin Leung +1
A Markovian SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model is considered for the spread of an epidemic on a configuration model network, in which susceptible individuals may take pre…