69 citations · 167 across the 19 of their papers we have counts for
22 papers
SIR epidemics in populations with large sub-communities
Frank Ball, David Sirl, Pieter Trapman
We investigate final outcome properties of an SIR (susceptible infective recovered) epidemic model defined on a population of large sub-communities in which there is st…
The risk for a new COVID-19 wave -- and how it depends on , the current immunity level and current restrictions
Tom Britton, Pieter Trapman, Frank Ball
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit different parts of the world differently: some regions are still in the rise of the first wave, other regions are now facing a decline after a first w…
Epidemics on networks with preventive rewiring
Frank Ball, Tom Britton
A stochastic SIR (susceptible infective recovered) epidemic model defined on a social network is analysed. The underlying social network is described by an Erdős-Rényi…
Summer vacation and COVID-19: effects of metropolitan people going to summer provinces
Tom Britton, Frank Ball
Many countries are now investigating what the effects of summer vacation might be on the COVID-19 pandemic. Here one particular such question is addressed: what will happen if larg…
The disease-induced herd immunity level for Covid-19 is substantially lower than the classical herd immunity level
Tom Britton, Frank Ball, Pieter Trapman
Most countries are suffering severely from the ongoing covid-19 pandemic despite various levels of preventive measures. A common question is if and when a country or region will re…
Central limit theorems for SIR epidemics and percolation on configuration model random graphs
Frank Ball
We consider a stochastic SIR (susceptible infective recovered) epidemic defined on a configuration model random graph, in which infective individuals can infect only th…
A stochastic SIR network epidemic model with preventive dropping of edges
Frank Ball, Tom Britton, Ka Yin Leung +1
A Markovian SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model is considered for the spread of an epidemic on a configuration model network, in which susceptible individuals may take pre…
Individual preventive measures during an epidemic may have negative population-level outcomes
Ka Yin Leung, Frank Ball, David Sirl +1
The outbreak of an infectious disease in a human population can lead to individuals responding with preventive measures in an attempt to avoid getting infected. This leads to chang…
Evaluation of vaccination strategies for SIR epidemics on random networks incorporating household structure
Frank Ball, David Sirl
This paper is concerned with the analysis of vaccination strategies in a stochastic SIR (susceptible infected removed) model for the spread of an epidemic amongst a pop…
The relationships between message passing, pairwise, Kermack-McKendrick and stochastic SIR epidemic models
Robert R. Wilkinson, Frank G. Ball, Kieran J. Sharkey
We consider a very general stochastic model for an SIR epidemic on a network which allows an individual's infectious period, and the time it takes to contact each of its neighbours…
Inferring in emerging epidemics - the effect of common population structure is small
Pieter Trapman, Frank Ball, Jean-Stéphane Dhersin +3
When controlling an emerging outbreak of an infectious disease it is essential to know the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number and the contr…
The deterministic Kermack-McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic
Robert R. Wilkinson, Frank G. Ball, Kieran J. Sharkey
We prove that, for Poisson transmission and recovery processes, the classic Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick provides, for…
Heterogeneous network epidemics: real-time growth, variance and extinction of infection
Frank Ball, Thomas House
Recent years have seen a large amount of interest in epidemics on networks as a way of representing the complex structure of contacts capable of spreading infections through the mo…
Stochastic epidemic models featuring contact tracing with delays
Frank G Ball, Edward S Knock, Philip D O'Neill
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in whic…
An epidemic in a dynamic population with importation of infectives
Frank Ball, Tom Britton, Pieter Trapman
Consider a large uniformly mixing dynamic population, which has constant birth rate and exponentially distributed lifetimes, with mean population size . A Markovian SIR (suscept…
Stochastic monotonicity and continuity properties of functions defined on Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes, with application to vaccination in epidemic modelling
Frank Ball, Miguel González, Rodrigo Martínez +1
This paper is concerned with Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes, describing spread of an epidemic depending on the proportion of the population that is vaccinated. Births in the…
Reproduction numbers for epidemic models with households and other social structures II: comparisons and implications for vaccination
Frank Ball, Lorenzo Pellis, Pieter Trapman
In this paper we consider epidemic models of directly transmissible SIR (susceptible infective recovered) and SEIR (with an additional latent class) infections in fully…
On expected durations of birth-death processes, with applications to branching processes and SIS epidemics
Frank Ball, Tom Britton, Peter Neal
We study continuous-time birth-death type processes, where individuals have independent and identically distributed lifetimes, according to a random variable Q, with E[Q]=1, and wh…
A network with tunable clustering, degree correlation and degree distribution, and an epidemic thereon
Frank Ball, Tom Britton, David Sirl
A random network model which allows for tunable, quite general forms of clustering, degree correlation and degree distribution is defined. The model is an extension of the configur…
Epidemics on random intersection graphs
Frank G. Ball, David J. Sirl, Pieter Trapman
In this paper we consider a model for the spread of a stochastic SIR (Susceptible Infectious Recovered) epidemic on a network of individuals described by a random inter…
Household epidemic models with varying infection response
Frank Ball, Tom Britton, David Sirl
This paper is concerned with SIR (susceptible infected removed) household epidemic models in which the infection response may be either mild or severe, with the type of…
Threshold behaviour and final outcome of an epidemic on a random network with household structure
Frank Ball, David Sirl, Pieter Trapman
This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptibleinfectiveremoved) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within `households'…