12 papers
SenTSR-Bench: Thinking with Injected Knowledge for Time-Series Reasoning
Zelin He, Boran Han, Xiyuan Zhang +10
Time-series diagnostic reasoning is essential for many applications, yet existing solutions face a persistent gap: general reasoning large language models (GRLMs) possess strong re…
Comparing and Contrasting DLWP Backbones on Navier-Stokes and Atmospheric Dynamics
Matthias Karlbauer, Danielle C. Maddix, Abdul Fatir Ansari +5
A large number of Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) architectures -- based on various backbones, including U-Net, Transformer, Graph Neural Network, and Fourier Neural Operat…
Theoretical Guarantees of Learning Ensembling Strategies with Applications to Time Series Forecasting
Hilaf Hasson, Danielle C. Maddix, Yuyang Wang +2
Ensembling is among the most popular tools in machine learning (ML) due to its effectiveness in minimizing variance and thus improving generalization. Most ensembling methods for b…
End-to-End Probabilistic Framework for Learning with Hard Constraints
Utkarsh Utkarsh, Danielle C. Maddix, Ruijun Ma +2
We present ProbHardE2E, a probabilistic forecasting framework that incorporates hard operational/physical constraints, and provides uncertainty quantification. Our methodology uses…
Mitra: Mixed Synthetic Priors for Enhancing Tabular Foundation Models
Xiyuan Zhang, Danielle C. Maddix, Junming Yin +11
Since the seminal work of TabPFN, research on tabular foundation models (TFMs) based on in-context learning (ICL) has challenged long-standing paradigms in machine learning. Withou…
Understanding the Implicit Biases of Design Choices for Time Series Foundation Models
Annan Yu, Danielle C. Maddix, Boran Han +7
Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are a class of potentially powerful, general-purpose tools for time series forecasting and related temporal tasks, but their behavior is stron…