2 citations · 5 across the 12 of their papers we have counts for
13 papers
Stickel-type key exchange with hidden subspaces
Fintan Costello, Paul Watts
We give a witness-finding cryptanalysis of Stickel-type key exchange schemes, which involve two-sided multiplication of matrices over , where these matri…
Towards Provably Fair Machine Learning: Bayesian Approaches For Consistent and Transparent Predictions
Owen O'Neill, Fintan Costello
ML classifiers deployed in high-stakes domains produce predictions whose quality varies systematically across subgroups. For granular subgroups defined by intersections of multiple…
Systematic Bias in Sample Inference and its Effect on Machine Learning
Owen O'Neill, Fintan Costello
A commonly observed pattern in machine learning models is an underprediction of the target feature, with the model's predicted target rate for members of a given category typically…
Underestimating the uncertainty of aggregated results: the case of W-Boson mass
Fintan Costello, Paul Watts
Estimates of uncertainty or variance in experimental means are central to physics. This is especially the case for `world averages' of fundamental physical parameters in particle p…
Why bother with Bayesian t-tests?
Fintan Costello, Paul Watts
Given the well-known and fundamental problems with hypothesis testing via classical (point-form) significance tests, there has been a general move to alternative approaches, often…
How to Tell When a Result Will Replicate: Significance and Replication in Distributional Null Hypothesis Tests
Fintan Costello, Paul Watts
There is a well-known problem in Null Hypothesis Significance Testing: many statistically significant results fail to replicate in subsequent experiments. We show that this problem…
Homeostatic behavioural response to COVID-19 infections returns R to a set-point of 1
Fintan Costello, Paul Watts, Rita Howe
One clear aspect of behaviour in the COVID-19 pandemic has been people's focus on, and response to, reported or observed infection numbers in their community. We describe a simple…
Significance and Replication in simple counting experiments: Distributional Null Hypothesis Testing
Fintan Costello, Paul Watts
Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) has long been of central importance to psychology as a science, guiding theory development and underlying the application of evidence-ba…
Distributional Null Hypothesis Testing with the T distribution
Fintan Costello, Paul Watts
Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) has long been central to the scientific project, guiding theory development and supporting evidence-based intervention and decision-maki…
A short note on Jacobsthal's function
Fintan Costello, Paul Watts
The function g(n) represents the smallest number Q such that every sequence of Q consecutive integers contains an integer coprime to n. We give a new and explicit upper bound on th…
Surprisingly Rational: Probability theory plus noise explains biases in judgment
Fintan Costello, Paul Watts
The systematic biases seen in people's probability judgments are typically taken as evidence that people do not reason about probability using the rules of probability theory, but…
Jacobsthal's function and a generalisation of Euler's totient
Fintan Costello, Paul Watts
Jacobsthal's function h(k) represents the smallest number m such that every sequence of m consecutive integers contains an integer coprime to P_k, the product of the first k primes…
A computational upper bound on Jacobsthal's function
Fintan Costello, Paul Watts
The function h(k) represents the smallest number m such that every sequence of m consecutive integers contains an integer coprime to the first k primes. We give a new computational…