3 papers
physics.geo-ph2026
Physics-Based Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment: A New Paradigm for Earthquake Forecasting
Davide Zaccagnino, Didier Sornette
Epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is commonly addressed through a logic-tree framework that combines weighted alternative models to characteri…
physics.geo-ph2026
Design and Implementation of a 25-Year Pseudo-Prospective Earthquake Forecasting Experiment in China (AoyuX)
Jiawei Li, Qingyuan Zhang, Didier Sornette
Forecast models in statistical seismology are commonly evaluated with log-likelihood scores of the full distribution P(n) of earthquake numbers, yet heavy tails and out-of-range ob…
physics.geo-ph2025
Unifying the Gutenberg-Richter Law with Probabilistic Catalog Completeness
Jiawei Li, Xinyi Wang, Didier Sornette
We propose a probabilistic approach to modeling catalog incompleteness through four candidate augmented Gutenberg-Richter (GR) laws, which incorporates incompleteness into the freq…