136 citations · 816 across the 52 of their papers we have counts for
56 papers
Interaction between Rydberg Excitons in Cuprous Oxide Revealed through Resonant Second Harmonic Generation
Andreas Farenbruch, Henje Stolz, Peter Grünwald +5
We report experimental and theoretical investigations of interacting excitons of the yellow series in cuprous oxide (CuO) with principal quantum numbers up to by means of secon…
E-values as statistical evidence: A comparison to Bayes factors, likelihoods, and p-values
Ben Chugg, Aaditya Ramdas, Peter Grünwald
A recurring debate in the philosophy of statistics concerns what, exactly, should count as a measure of evidence for or against a given hypothesis. P-values, likelihood ratios, and…
Description length of canonical and microcanonical models
Francesca Giuffrida, Tiziano Squartini, Peter Grünwald +1
The (non-)equivalence of canonical and microcanonical ensembles is a fundamental question in statistical physics, concerning whether the use of soft and hard constraints in the max…
Reverse Information Projections and Optimal E-statistics
Tyron Lardy, Peter Grünwald, Peter Harremoës
Information projections have found important applications in probability theory, statistics, and related areas. In the field of hypothesis testing in particular, the reverse inform…
Exponential Stochastic Inequality
Peter D. Grünwald, Muriel F. Pérez-Ortiz, Zakaria Mhammedi
We develop the concept of exponential stochastic inequality (ESI), a novel notation that simultaneously captures high-probability and in-expectation statements. It is especially we…
E-values for k-Sample Tests With Exponential Families
Yunda Hao, Peter Grünwald, Tyron Lardy +2
We develop and compare e-variables for testing whether samples of data are drawn from the same distribution, the alternative being that they come from different elements of an…
Safe Sequential Testing and Effect Estimation in Stratified Count Data
Rosanne J. Turner, Peter D. Grünwald
Sequential decision making significantly speeds up research and is more cost-effective compared to fixed-n methods. We present a method for sequential decision making for stratifie…
The E-Posterior
Peter Grünwald
We develop a representation of a decision maker's uncertainty based on e-variables. Like the Bayesian posterior, this *e-posterior* allows for making predictions against arbitrary…
Game-theoretic statistics and safe anytime-valid inference
Aaditya Ramdas, Peter Grünwald, Vladimir Vovk +1
Safe anytime-valid inference (SAVI) provides measures of statistical evidence and certainty -- e-processes for testing and confidence sequences for estimation -- that remain valid…
Anytime Valid Tests of Conditional Independence Under Model-X
Peter Grünwald, Alexander Henzi, Tyron Lardy
We propose a sequential, anytime-valid method to test the conditional independence of a response and a predictor given a random vector . The proposed test is based on e-…
E-Statistics, Group Invariance and Anytime Valid Testing
Muriel Felipe Pérez-Ortiz, Tyron Lardy, Rianne de Heide +1
We study worst-case-growth-rate-optimal (GROW) e-statistics for hypothesis testing between two group models. It is known that under a mild condition on the action of the underlying…
Beyond Neyman-Pearson: e-values enable hypothesis testing with a data-driven alpha
Peter Grünwald
A standard practice in statistical hypothesis testing is to mention the p-value alongside the accept/reject decision. We show the advantages of mentioning an e-value instead. With…
Exact Anytime-valid Confidence Intervals for Contingency Tables and Beyond
Rosanne Turner, Peter Grünwald
E-variables are tools for retaining type-I error guarantee with optional stopping. We extend E-variables for sequential two-sample tests to general null hypotheses and anytime-vali…
Minimax risk classifiers with 0-1 loss
Santiago Mazuelas, Mauricio Romero, Peter Grünwald
Supervised classification techniques use training samples to learn a classification rule with small expected 0-1 loss (error probability). Conventional methods enable tractable lea…
ALL-IN meta-analysis: breathing life into living systematic reviews and prospective meta-analyses
Judith ter Schure, Peter Grünwald
Science is justly admired as a cumulative process ("standing on the shoulders of giants"), yet scientific knowledge is typically built on a patchwork of research contributions with…
Generic E-Variables for Exact Sequential k-Sample Tests that allow for Optional Stopping
Rosanne Turner, Alexander Ly, Peter Grünwald
We develop E-variables for testing whether two or more data streams come from the same source or not, and more generally, whether the difference between the sources is larger than…
Robust subgroup discovery
Hugo Manuel Proença, Peter Grünwald, Thomas Bäck +1
We introduce the problem of robust subgroup discovery, i.e., finding a set of interpretable descriptions of subsets that 1) stand out with respect to one or more target attributes,…
The Anytime-Valid Logrank Test: Error Control Under Continuous Monitoring with Unlimited Horizon
J. ter Schure, M. F. Perez-Ortiz, A. Ly +1
We introduce the anytime-valid (AV) logrank test, a version of the logrank test that provides type-I error guarantees under optional stopping and optional continuation. The test is…
Minimax rates without the fixed sample size assumption
Alisa Kirichenko, Peter Grünwald
We generalize the notion of minimax convergence rate. In contrast to the standard definition, we do not assume that the sample size is fixed in advance. Allowing for varying sample…
Safe-Bayesian Generalized Linear Regression
Rianne de Heide, Alisa Kirichenko, Nishant Mehta +1
We study generalized Bayesian inference under misspecification, i.e. when the model is 'wrong but useful'. Generalized Bayes equips the likelihood with a learning rate . We show…
Safe Testing
Peter Grünwald, Rianne de Heide, Wouter Koolen
We develop the theory of hypothesis testing based on the e-value, a notion of evidence that, unlike the p-value, allows for effortlessly combining results from several studies in t…
PAC-Bayes Un-Expected Bernstein Inequality
Zakaria Mhammedi, Peter D. Grunwald, Benjamin Guedj
We present a new PAC-Bayesian generalization bound. Standard bounds contain a $\sqrt{L_n \cdot \KL/n}$ complexity term which dominates unless , the empirical error of the lear…
Effective second-order correlation function and single-photon detection
Peter Grünwald
Quantum-optical research on semiconductor single-photon sources puts special emphasis on the measurement of the second-order correlation function , arguing that $g^{(2)…
Rydberg excitons in the presence of an ultralow-density electron-hole plasma
J. Heckötter, M. Freitag, D. Fröhlich +7
We use two-color pump-probe spectroscopy to study Rydberg excitons in CuO in the presence of free carriers injected by above-band-gap excitation. Already at plasma densities $ρ…