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stat.ME2026
Zero-inflated stochastic volatility model for disaggregated inflation data with exact zeros
Geonhee Han, Kaoru Irie
The disaggregated time-series for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) often exhibits exact zero price changes, stemming from structural features of the data collection process. However,…
stat.ME2025
Efficient scenario analysis in real-time Bayesian election forecasting via sequential meta-posterior sampling
Geonhee Han, Andrew Gelman, Aki Vehtari
Bayesian aggregation lets election forecasters combine diverse sources of information, such as state polls and economic and political indicators: as in our collaboration with The E…