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econ.EM2026
Statistical Inference for Score Decompositions
Timo Dimitriadis, Marius Puke
We introduce inference methods for score decompositions, which partition scoring functions for predictive assessment into three interpretable components: miscalibration, discrimina…
econ.EM2024
Testing Forecast Rationality for Measures of Central Tendency
Timo Dimitriadis, Andrew J. Patton, Patrick W. Schmidt
Rational respondents to economic surveys may report as a point forecast any measure of the central tendency of their (possibly latent) predictive distribution, for example the mean…