2 papers
stat.AP2026
Forests of Uncertaint(r)ees: Using tree-based ensembles to estimate probability distributions of future conflict
Daniel Mittermaier, Tobias Bohne, Martin Hofer +1
Predictions of fatalities from violent conflict on the PRIO-GRID-month (pgm) level are characterized by high levels of uncertainty, limiting their usefulness in practical applicati…
stat.AP2024
The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty
HÃ¥vard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi +37
This draft article outlines a prediction challenge where the target is to forecast the number of fatalities in armed conflicts, in the form of the UCDP `best' estimates, aggregated…