6 papers
Risk-Based Dynamic Thermal Rating in Distribution Transformers via Probabilistic Forecasting
Scott Angus, Jethro Browell, David Greenwood +1
Low voltage (LV) distribution transformers face accelerating demand growth while replacement lead times and costs continue to rise, making improved utilisation of existing assets e…
Probabilistic forecasting of weather-driven faults in electricity networks: a flexible approach for extreme and non-extreme events
Mateus Maia, Daniela Castro-Camilo, Jethro Browell
Electricity networks are vulnerable to weather damage, with severe events often leading to faults and power outages. Timely forecasts of fault occurrences, ranging from nowcasts to…
The Hybrid Renewable Energy Forecasting and Trading Competition 2024
Jethro Browell, Dennis van der Meer, Henrik Kälvegren +4
The Hybrid Energy Forecasting and Trading Competition challenged participants to forecast and trade the electricity generation from a 3.6GW portfolio of wind and solar farms in Gre…
Adaptive Bayesian Very Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Based on the Generalised Logit Transformation
Tao Shen, Jethro Browell, Daniela Castro-Camilo
Wind power plays an increasingly significant role in achieving the 2050 Net Zero Strategy. Despite its rapid growth, its inherent variability presents challenges in forecasting. Ac…
evalprob4cast: An R-package for evaluation of ensembles as probabilistic forecasts or event forecasts
Mathias Blicher Bjerregård, Jethro Browell, John Zack +4
For any forecasting application, evaluation of forecasts is an important task. For example, in the field of renewable energy sources there is high variability and uncertainty of po…
Seamless short- to mid-term probabilistic wind power forecasting
Gabriel Dantas, Jethro Browell
This paper presents a method for probabilistic wind power forecasting that quantifies and integrates uncertainties from weather forecasts and weather-to-power conversion. By addres…