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math.PR2012
Fluctuations of Martingales and Winning Probabilities of Game Contestants
David Aldous, Mykhaylo Shkolnikov
Within a contest there is some probability M_i(t) that contestant i will be the winner, given information available at time t, and M_i(t) must be a martingale in t. Assume continuo…
physics.soc-ph2012
A Spatial Model of City Growth and Formation
David Aldous, Bowen Huang
We introduce a model in which city populations grow at rates proportional to the area of their "sphere of influence", where the influence of a city depends on its population (to po…