3 papers
physics.ao-ph2026
Am I Confused or Is This Confusing?: Deep Ensembles for ENSO Uncertainty Quantification
Devin M. McAfee, Elizabeth A. Barnes
Faithful uncertainty quantification (UQ) is paramount in high stakes climate prediction. Deep ensembles, or ensembles of probabilistic neural networks, are state of the art for UQ…
physics.ao-ph2025
Digestible Pieces: comparing three options for partitioning the Northeast Pacific Coast for S2S sea surface height prediction
Laura Thapa, Marybeth Arcodia, Elizabeth A. Barnes
We discuss the utility of applying clustering as a preprocessing step for identifying subseasonal to seasonal forecasts of opportunity of coastal sea level using convolutional neur…
physics.ao-ph2025
Reanalysis-based Global Radiative Response to Sea Surface Temperature Patterns: Evaluating the Ai2 Climate Emulator
Senne Van Loon, Maria Rugenstein, Elizabeth A. Barnes
The sensitivity of the radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere to surface temperature perturbations cannot be directly observed. The relationship between sea surface temperatur…