2 papers
stat.AP2026
Assessing Reporting Delays in ACLED Conflict Event Data
Faniry A. Razakason, Daniel Racek, Paul W. Thurner +1
Timely and accurate conflict event data are essential for real-time monitoring, forecasting, and policy response. Yet near-real-time conflict datasets such as the Armed Conflict Lo…
stat.AP2026
Forests of Uncertaint(r)ees: Using tree-based ensembles to estimate probability distributions of future conflict
Daniel Mittermaier, Tobias Bohne, Martin Hofer +1
Predictions of fatalities from violent conflict on the PRIO-GRID-month (pgm) level are characterized by high levels of uncertainty, limiting their usefulness in practical applicati…