5 papers · 1 filter
Omega-blocks with spatially compounding extremes over Europe are highly sensitive to remote atmospheric drivers
Magdalena Mittermeier, Christian M. Grams, Urs Beyerle +5
Omega-blocks can trigger spatially compounding heat-precipitation extremes with severe societal impacts, as seen in September 2023 when a heatwave over France coincided with devast…
Windows of opportunity in subseasonal weather regime forecasting: A statistical-dynamical approach
Fabian Mockert, Christian M. Grams, Sebastian Lerch +1
MJO and SPV are prominent sources of subseasonal predictability in the Extratropics. With relevance for European weather it has been shown that the joint interaction of MJO and the…
Quantifying intra-regime weather variability for energy applications
Judith Gerighausen, Joshua Dorrington, Marisol Osman +1
Weather regimes describe the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the mid-latitudes in terms of a few circulation states that modulate regional surface weather. Subseasonal forec…
Multivariate post-processing of probabilistic sub-seasonal weather regime forecasts
Fabian Mockert, Christian M. Grams, Sebastian Lerch +2
Reliable forecasts of quasi-stationary, recurrent, and persistent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (weather regimes) are crucial for various socio-economic sectors. Des…
Improving forecasts of precipitation extremes over Northern and Central Italy using machine learning
Federico Grazzini, Joshua Dorrington, Christian M. Grams +3
The accurate prediction of intense precipitation events is one of the main objectives of operational weather services. This task is even more relevant nowadays, with the rapid prog…