activity
20242026
collaborators

9 papers

stat.ME2026

Combining BART and Principal Stratification to estimate the effect of intermediate variables on primary outcomes with application to estimating the effect of family planning on employment in Nigeria and Senegal

Lucas Godoy Garraza, Ilene Speizer, Leontine Alkema

There is interest in learning about the causal effects of modern contraceptive use on empowerment outcomes. Data on this question often come from family planning (FP) programs that…

stat.ME2026

Combining BART and Principal Stratification to estimate the effect of intermediate on primary outcomes with application to estimating the effect of family planning on employment in sub-Saharan Africa

Lucas Godoy Garraza, Ilene Speizer, Leontine Alkema

There is interest in learning about the causal effect of family planning (FP) on empowerment related outcomes. Experimental data related to this question are available from trials…

stat.AP2025

Bayesian Statistical Modeling in Action for Estimation and Forecasting in Low- and Middle-income Countries: The Case of the Family Planning Estimation Tool

Leontine Alkema, Herbert Susmann, Evan Ray +12

The Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) is used in low- and middle-income countries to produce estimates and short-term forecasts of family planning indicators, such as modern c…

stat.ME2025

Bayesian probabilistic projections of proportions with limited data: An application to subnational contraceptive method supply shares

Hannah Comiskey, Niamh Cahill, Leontine Alkema +2

Engaging the private sector in contraceptive method supply is critical for creating equitable, sustainable, and accessible healthcare systems. To achieve this, it is essential to u…

stat.ME2025

Principal Stratification with Bayesian Additive Regression Trees for Count-Valued Intermediate Variables: Estimating the Effect of Fertility on Women's Employment

Lucas Godoy Garraza, Leontine Alkema

Estimating the causal effect of fertility on women's employment is challenging because fertility and labour-market decisions are jointly determined. Instrumental-variable strategie…

stat.ME2025

Flexible Modeling of Demographic Transition Processes with a Bayesian Hierarchical B-splines Model

Herbert Susmann, Leontine Alkema

Several demographic and health indicators, including the total fertility rate (TFR) and modern contraceptive use rate (mCPR), evolve similarly over time, characterized by a transit…