8 papers
Statistical and economic evaluation of forecasts in electricity markets: beyond RMSE and MAE
Katarzyna Maciejowska, Arkadiusz Lipiecki, Bartosz Uniejewski
Electricity price forecasts are typically evaluated using accuracy measures such as RMSE and MAE, although these metrics often fail to reflect their economic value in operational d…
Variance Stabilizing Transformations for Electricity Price Forecasting in Periods of Increased Volatility
Bartosz Uniejewski
Accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasts are critical for power system operation and market participation, yet growing renewable penetration and recent crises have caused unp…
Extrapolating the long-term seasonal component of electricity prices for forecasting in the day-ahead market
Katarzyna ChÄÄ, Bartosz Uniejewski, RafaÅ Weron
Recent studies provide evidence that decomposing the electricity price into the long-term seasonal component (LTSC) and the remaining part, predicting both separately, and then com…
Probabilistic Forecasts of Load, Solar and Wind for Electricity Price Forecasting
Bartosz Uniejewski, Florian Ziel
Electricity price forecasting is a critical tool for the efficient operation of power systems and for supporting informed decision-making by market participants. This paper explore…
Ranking probabilistic forecasting models with different loss functions
Tomasz Serafin, Bartosz Uniejewski
In this study, we introduced various statistical performance metrics, based on the pinball loss and the empirical coverage, for the ranking of probabilistic forecasting models. We…
Probabilistic forecasting with a hybrid Factor-QRA approach: Application to electricity trading
Katarzyna Maciejowska, Tomasz Serafin, Bartosz Uniejewski
This paper presents a novel hybrid approach for constricting probabilistic forecasts that combines both the Quantile Regression Averaging (QRA) method and the factor-based averagin…