8 papers
Dummy RAPM: Representing Low-Minute Players in Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus
Kenny Watts, Jonathan Pipping-Gamón, Abraham J. Wyner
Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) uses stint-level lineup indicators to estimate player contributions to scoring margin. When low-minute player columns are removed, their stin…
Opponent-Adjusted Evaluation of NFL Pass Blocking and Pass Rushing Performance
Jonathan Pipping-Gamón, Maximilian Gebauer, Victoria Lee +2
Evaluating offensive linemen and pass rushers at the player level is difficult because observable outcomes are sparse, opponent-dependent, and strongly shaped by surrounding contex…
Extreme-Path Benchmarks for Sequential Probability Forecasts
Jonathan Pipping-Gamón, Abraham J. Wyner
Real-time probability forecasts for binary outcomes are routine in sports, online experimentation, medicine, and finance. Retrospective narratives, however, often hinge on pathwise…
Separating Intent from Execution: A Probabilistic Approach to Pitch Location Accuracy
Matt Ludwig, Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner
Control has long been recognized as a critical component of pitcher performance, reflecting a pitcher's ability to execute pitches in alignment with his intended targets. However,…
Exploring the Difficulty of Estimating Win Probability: A Simulation Study
Ryan S. Brill, Ronald Yurko, Abraham J. Wyner
Estimating win probability is one of the classic modeling tasks of sports analytics. Many widely used win probability estimators use machine learning to fit the relationship betwee…
Putting Skill as Nearly Indistinguishable from Noise: An Empirical Bayes Analysis of PGA Tour Performance
Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner
We revisit a foundational question in golf analytics: how important are the core components of performance--driving, approach play, and putting--in explaining success on the PGA To…