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Dummy RAPM: Representing Low-Minute Players in Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus
Kenny Watts, Jonathan Pipping-Gamón, Abraham J. Wyner
Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) uses stint-level lineup indicators to estimate player contributions to scoring margin. When low-minute player columns are removed, their stin…
Opponent-Adjusted Evaluation of NFL Pass Blocking and Pass Rushing Performance
Jonathan Pipping-Gamón, Maximilian Gebauer, Victoria Lee +2
Evaluating offensive linemen and pass rushers at the player level is difficult because observable outcomes are sparse, opponent-dependent, and strongly shaped by surrounding contex…
A Unified Server Quality Metric for Tennis
Aiwen Li, Amrita Balajee, Harry Wieand +1
Traditional tennis rating systems (e.g., Elo) summarize overall player strength but do not isolate the independent value of serving. Using point-by-point data from Wimbledon and th…
The Blown Lead Paradox: A Pathwise Calibration Benchmark for Win Probability Forecasts
Jonathan Pipping-Gamón, Jonathan Pipping-Gamón, Abraham J. Wyner
Live win probabilities have given sports collapses a common numerical language: the highest win probability attained by the team that eventually lost. Yet this familiar number is a…
Kicking for Goal or Touch? An Expected Points Framework for Penalty Decisions in Rugby Union
Kenny Watts, Jonathan Pipping-Gamón
Following a penalty in rugby union, teams typically choose between attempting a shot at goal or kicking to touch to pursue a try. We develop an Expected Points (EP) framework that…