5 papers
Possible, Yes; Ignorant, Perhaps: A Scorecard for Possibilistic Forecasts
John R. Lawson
Probabilistic forecasts must sum to unity and cannot express ``I don't know.'' Possibility theory relaxes this constraint: a subnormal distribution explicitly measures how much of…
A Probabilistic WxChallenge Proposal
John R. Lawson
The national forecasting competition WxChallenge, brainchild of Brad Illston at the University of Oklahoma in 2005, has become a cherished institution played across the United Stat…
A ten-year historical analysis of urban PM10 and exceedance filters along the Northern Wasatch Front, UT, USA
Callum E. Flowerday, Rebekah S. Stanley, John R. Lawson +5
The Great Salt Lake (Utah, USA) is reducing in size, which raises several ecological concerns, including the effect of an increasing area of dry playa exposed by the retreating lak…
Communicating Risk with Possibility, Not Probability
John R. Lawson
Communicating forecast uncertainty effectively is a persistent challenge in predictive endeavours such as weather forecasting. This paper explores the application of possibility th…
Pixels and Predictions: Potential of GPT-4V in Meteorological Imagery Analysis and Forecast Communication
John R. Lawson, Joseph E. Trujillo-Falcón, David M. Schultz +5
Generative AI, such as OpenAI's GPT-4V large-language model, has rapidly entered mainstream discourse. Novel capabilities in image processing and natural-language communication may…