activity
20122023
most citedProbability aggregation in time-series: Dynamic hierarchical modeling of sparse expert beliefs

33 citations · 54 across the 5 of their papers we have counts for

collaborators

5 papers

cs.CL20231 cited

TopEx: Topic-based Explanations for Model Comparison

Shreya Havaldar, Adam Stein, Eric Wong +1

Meaningfully comparing language models is challenging with current explanation methods. Current explanations are overwhelming for humans due to large vocabularies or incomparable a…

stat.ME2016

Bayesian aggregation of two forecasts in the partial information framework

Philip Ernst, Robin Pemantle, Ville Satopaa +1

We generalize the results of \cite{SPU, SJPU} by showing how the Gaussian aggregator may be computed in a setting where parameter estimation is not required. We proceed to provide…

stat.ME2015

Combining Probability Forecasts and Understanding Probability Extremizing through Information Diversity

Ville Satopää, Robin Pemantle, Lyle Ungar

Randomness in scientific estimation is generally assumed to arise from unmeasured or uncontrolled factors. However, when combining subjective probability estimates, heterogeneity s…

stat.AP201433 cited

Probability aggregation in time-series: Dynamic hierarchical modeling of sparse expert beliefs

Ville A. Satopää, Shane T. Jensen, Barbara A. Mellers +2

Most subjective probability aggregation procedures use a single probability judgment from each expert, even though it is common for experts studying real problems to update their p…

stat.ML201220 cited

Spectral dimensionality reduction for HMMs

Dean P. Foster, Jordan Rodu, Lyle H. Ungar

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) can be accurately approximated using co-occurrence frequencies of pairs and triples of observations by using a fast spectral method in contrast to the u…