3 papers
econ.EM2026
A Dynamic Factor Model for Level and Volatility
Haroon Mumtaz, Sofia Velasco
This paper develops a dynamic factor model in which common level and volatility factors evolve jointly, allowing conditional means and variances to interact endogenously within a l…
econ.GN2025
Who benefits from increases in military spending? An empirical analysis
John Beirne, Haroon Mumtaz, Donghyun Park +2
This paper investigates the heterogeneous effects of military spending news shocks on household income and wealth inequality for a large, panel of advanced and emerging economies.…
econ.EM2025
A Bayesian Gaussian Process Dynamic Factor Model
Tony Chernis, Niko Hauzenberger, Haroon Mumtaz +1
We propose a dynamic factor model (DFM) where the latent factors are linked to observed variables with unknown and potentially nonlinear functions. The key novelty and source of fl…