204 citations · 513 across the 13 of their papers we have counts for
13 papers
Earthquake Number Forecasts Testing
Yan Y. Kagan
We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global catalogs: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. These distributions are require…
Likelihood analysis of earthquake focal mechanism distributions
Y. Y. Kagan, D. D Jackson
In our paper published earlier we discussed forecasts of earthquake focal mechanism and ways to test the forecast efficiency. Several verification methods were proposed, but they w…
Statistical earthquake focal mechanism forecasts
Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson
Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a…
Double-Couple Earthquake Source: Symmetry and Rotation
Yan Y. Kagan
We consider statistical analysis of double couple (DC) earthquake focal mechanism orientation. The symmetry of DC changes with its geometrical properties, and the number of 3-D rot…
Long- and Short-Term Earthquake Forecasts during the Tohoku Sequence
Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson
We consider two issues related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) what is the repeat time for the largest earthquakes in this area, and (2) what are the possibilities of numer…
Tohoku earthquake: a surprise?
Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson
We consider three questions related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) Why was the event size so grossly under-estimated? (2) How should we evaluate the chances of giant earth…
Random stress and Omori's law
Yan Y. Kagan
We consider two statistical regularities that were used to explain Omori's law of the aftershock rate decay: the Levy and Inverse Gaussian (IGD) distributions. These distributions…
Adaptively Smoothed Seismicity Earthquake Forecasts for Italy
M. J. Werner, A. Helmstetter, D. D. Jackson +2
We present a model for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes of magnitudes m > 4.95 in Italy. The model, a slightly modified version of the one proposed for California…
Statistical Distributions of Earthquake Numbers: Consequence of Branching Process
Yan Y. Kagan
We discuss various statistical distributions of earthquake numbers. Previously we derived several discrete distributions to describe earthquake numbers for the branching model of e…
Earthquake Size Distribution: Power-Law with Exponent Beta = 1/2?
Yan Y. Kagan
We propose that the widely observed and universal Gutenberg-Richter relation is a mathematical consequence of the critical branching nature of earthquake process in a brittle fract…
Testing long-term earthquake forecasts: likelihood methods and error diagrams
Yan Y. Kagan
We propose a new method to test the effectiveness of a spatial point process forecast based on a log-likelihood score for predicted point density and the information gain for event…
On geometric complexity of earthquake focal zone and fault system: A statistical study
Yan Y. Kagan
We discuss various methods used to investigate the geometric complexity of earthquakes and earthquake faults, based both on a point-source representation and the study of interrela…
Rank-Ordering Statistics of Extreme Events: Application to the Distribution of Large Earthquakes
Didier Sornette, Leon Knopoff, Yan Kagan +1
Rank-ordering statistics provides a perspective on the rare, largest elements of a population, whereas the statistics of cumulative distributions are dominated by the more numerous…