most citedParsimony, model adequacy and periodic correlation in forecasting time series

70 citations · 271 across the 12 of their papers we have counts for

collaborators

12 papers

math.ST2016★ 6 cited

Fitting MA(q) Models in the Closed Invertible Region

Ying Zhang, A. Ian McLeod

The use of reparameterization in the maximization of the likelihood function of the MA(q) model is discussed. A general method for testing for the presence of a parameter estimate…

math.ST2016★ 26 cited

Power Computations for Intervention Analysis

A. Ian McLeod, Evelyn R. Vingilis

In many intervention analysis applications time series data may be expensive or otherwise difficult to collect. In this case the power function is helpful since it can be used to d…

physics.ao-ph2016★ 37 cited

Improved weather generator algorithm for multisite simulation of precipitation and temperature

Leanna M. King, Ian McLeod, Slobodan P. Simonovic

The KnnCAD Version 4 weather generator algorithm for nonparametric, multisite simulations of temperature and precipitation data is presented. The K-nearest neighbour weather genera…

math.ST2016★ 2 cited

Improved spread-location visualization

A. Ian McLeod

The spread-location plot has often been used as a diagnostic plot suitable for many types of fitted statistical models. The spread-location plot which plots the absolute residual o…

stat.AP2016★ 70 cited

Parsimony, model adequacy and periodic correlation in forecasting time series

A. Ian McLeod

The merits of the modelling philosophy of Box \& Jenkins (1970) are illustrated with a summary of our recent work on seasonal river flow forecasting. Specifically, this work demons…

stat.AP2016★ 8 cited

Necessary and Sufficient Condition for Nonsingular Fisher Information Matrix in ARMA Models

A. Ian McLeod

It is demonstrated that a necessary and sufficient condition that the Fisher information matrix of an ARMA model be nonsingular is that the model not be redundant, that is, the aut…

math.ST2016★ 21 cited

Portmanteau Tests for ARMA Models with Infinite Variance

Jen-Wen Lin, A. Ian McLeod

Autoregressive and moving-average (ARMA) models with stable Paretian errors is one of the most studied models for time series with infinite variance. Estimation methods for these m…

math.ST2016★ 23 cited

Faster ARMA maximum likelihood estimation

A. Ian McLeod, Ying Zhang

A new likelihood based AR approximation is given for ARMA models. The usual algorithms for the computation of the likelihood of an ARMA model require flops per function eval…

math.ST2016★ 11 cited

Mean likelihood estimators

Ian McLeod, Benoit Quenneville

The use of {\it Mathematica} in deriving mean likelihood estimators is discussed. Comparisons between the maximum likelihood estimator, the mean likelihood estimator and the Bayes…

math.ST2016★ 12 cited

Hyperbolic decay time series

A. Ian McLeod

Hyperbolic decay time series such as, fractional Gaussian noise (FGN) or fractional autoregressive moving-average (FARMA) process, each exhibit two distinct types of behaviour: str…

math.ST2016★ 1 cited

Developments in Maximum Likelihood Unit Root Tests

Ying Zhang, H. Yu, A. I. McLeod

The exact maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) provides a test statistic for the unit root test that is more powerful \citep[p. 577]{Fuller96} than the usual least squares approach. I…

math.ST2016★ 54 cited

Improved multivariate portmanteau test

Esam Mahdi, A. Ian McLeod

A new portmanteau diagnostic test for vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models that is based on the determinant of the standardized multivariate residual autocorrelation…