122 citations · 141 across the 4 of their papers we have counts for
5 papers
Global estimation and scenario-based projections of sex ratio at birth and missing female births using a Bayesian hierarchical time series mixture model
Fengqing Chao, Patrick Gerland, Alex R. Cook +1
The sex ratio at birth (SRB) is defined as the ratio of male to female live births. The SRB imbalance in parts of the world over the past several decades is a direct consequence of…
Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Total Fertility Rates
Hana Sevcikova, Adrian E. Raftery, Patrick Gerland
We consider the problem of probabilistic projection of the total fertility rate (TFR) for subnational regions. We seek a method that is consistent with the UN's recently adopted Ba…
Age-Specific Mortality and Fertility Rates for Probabilistic Population Projections
Hana Ševčíková, Nan Li, Vladimíra Kantorová +2
The United Nations released official probabilistic population projections (PPP) for all countries for the first time in July 2014. These were obtained by projecting the period tota…
Bayesian Population Projections for the United Nations
Adrian E. Raftery, Leontine Alkema, Patrick Gerland
The United Nations regularly publishes projections of the populations of all the world's countries broken down by age and sex. These projections are the de facto standard and are w…
Bayesian Reconstruction of Two-Sex Populations by Age: Estimating Sex Ratios at Birth and Sex Ratios of Mortality
Mark C. Wheldon, Adrian E. Raftery, Samuel J. Clark +1
The original version of Bayesian reconstruction, a method for estimating age-specific fertility, mortality, migration and population counts of the recent past with uncertainty, pro…