3 papers
stat.ME2026
Hypothesizing an effect size by considering individual variation
Andrew Gelman, Amy Krefman, Lauren Kennedy +1
When designing and evaluating an experiment or observational study, it is useful to have a realistic hypothesis regarding the average treatment effect. We present an approach to co…
stat.ME2026
Power Analysis is Essential: High-Powered Tests Suggest Minimal to No Effect of Rounded Shapes on Click-Through Rates
Ron Kohavi, Jakub Linowski, Lukas Vermeer +5
Underpowered studies (below 50% power) suffer from the winner's curse: A statistically significant positive estimate must exaggerate the true treatment effect to meet the significa…
cs.LG2025
Conformal Prediction and Human Decision Making
Jessica Hullman, Yifan Wu, Dawei Xie +2
Methods to quantify uncertainty in predictions from arbitrary models are in demand in high-stakes domains like medicine and finance. Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular m…