57 citations · 159 across the 36 of their papers we have counts for
37 papers
FIFA World Cup 2026 as a Contamination-Free Benchmark for LLM Forecasting Agents: Four Models, a Bookmaker, and 104 Matches
Jiacheng Ding, Cong Guo, Jason Xu
We introduce WC2026-Agents, a benchmark and dataset for evaluating large language models (LLMs) as autonomous forecasting agents on real, future events. For every one of the 104 ma…
Constrained Weighted Bayesian Bootstrap
Sam Rosen, Jason Xu
We prove the weighted Bayesian bootstrap, a method for approximate sampling of a posterior distribution, can be extended to sample from general constrained posterior distributions…
Affinity Graph Connectivity in Convex Clustering
Sam Rosen, Jason Xu
We generalize finite-sample bounds for convex clustering to the setting where affinity weights appearing in the objective correspond to a general connected graph. These bounds and…
Bayesian Distance-to-Set Models: from Latent Variable to Latent Projection
Leo L Duan, Yuexi Wang, Jason Xu
Statistical models often assume that data are generated near a structured, smooth, or low-dimensional set. A common approach is to use Bayesian latent variable models, in which eac…
A Bayesian approach for fitting semi-Markov mixture models of cancer latency to individual-level data
Raphael Morsomme, Shannon Holloway, Marc Ryser +1
Multi-state models of cancer natural history are widely used for designing and evaluating cancer early detection strategies. Calibrating such models against longitudinal data from…
Bridged Posterior: Optimization, Profile Likelihood and a New Approach to Generalized Bayes
Cheng Zeng, Eleni Dilma, Jason Xu +1
Optimization is widely used in statistics, and often efficiently delivers point estimates on useful spaces involving structural constraints or combinatorial structure. To quantify…