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q-fin.PR2026
Perpetual Futures for Stocks: The SpaceX Pre-IPO Market
Aditya Gupta, Nick Polson
Robert Shiller proposed perpetual futures in 1993 to create derivative markets for assets that are illiquid or whose price cannot be observed directly, such as single family homes,…
stat.ME2026
Horseshoe Priors for Spatial Small Area Estimation: Regular Variation, Tail Robustness, and Deep Learning
Dhiman Bhadra, Nicholas Polson
Small area estimation borrows strength across domains to repair the poor precision of direct survey estimators. Two philosophies dominate the area-level literature. The first, desc…