3 papers
stat.AP2026
Surface temperature extremes produced by huge machine learning hindcasts of summer 2023
Mark Risser, Ankur Mahesh, Joshua North +6
The summer of 2023 brought record-breaking heat extremes across the globe. In this work, we investigate how much worse these extremes might have become, given identical large-scale…
physics.ao-ph2025
Huge Ensembles Part I: Design of Ensemble Weather Forecasts using Spherical Fourier Neural Operators
Ankur Mahesh, William Collins, Boris Bonev +13
Studying low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems pr…
cs.LG2025
Huge Ensembles Part II: Properties of a Huge Ensemble of Hindcasts Generated with Spherical Fourier Neural Operators
Ankur Mahesh, William Collins, Boris Bonev +12
In Part I, we created an ensemble based on Spherical Fourier Neural Operators. As initial condition perturbations, we used bred vectors, and as model perturbations, we used multipl…